Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Lyoto Machida
Luke Rockhold
66%
34%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
37
Age
Δ 6y
30
25-8
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-6
W1
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Machida: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Rockhold: 23 sig / 1 TD
Lyoto Machida
Luke Rockhold
23
Sig strikes landed
26
49
Sig strikes attempted
54
27
Total strikes landed
32
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
81s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
25-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
L
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
Blue corner
W3
Luke Rockhold
17-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—