Prelims2
Welterweight
George Sullivan vs Tim Means
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
George Sullivan
Tim Means
40%
60%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
18-7
Career record
Δ 7 pp
34-17-1
W2
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Sullivan: 39 sig / 0 TD ·
Means: 48 sig / 2 TD
George Sullivan
Tim Means
48
Sig strikes landed
54
117
Sig strikes attempted
139
69
Total strikes landed
67
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.0
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
178s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
George Sullivan
"The Silencer"
18-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
Blue corner
W3
Tim Means
"The Dirty Bird"
34-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—