Prelims1
Bantamweight
Takeya Mizugaki vs Aljamain Sterling
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Takeya Mizugaki
Aljamain Sterling
19%
81%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
31
Age
Δ 6y
26
21-12-2
Career record
Δ 24 pp
27-5
L1
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Mizugaki: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Sterling: 32 sig / 3 TD
Takeya Mizugaki
Aljamain Sterling
41
Sig strikes landed
56
102
Sig strikes attempted
126
65
Total strikes landed
87
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.8
3.5
Takedowns attempted
6.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
102s
Control time
270s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Takeya Mizugaki
21-12-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
Blue corner
W2
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
27-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—