Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jordan Bailey
Alex Higley
81%
19%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bailey: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Higley: 1 sig / 0 TD
Jordan Bailey
Alex Higley
42
Sig strikes landed
42
90
Sig strikes attempted
90
60
Total strikes landed
53
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jordan Bailey
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Blue corner
Alex Higley
0-0
Career record
Height
70"