Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nick Garcia
Matt Ramirez
87%
13%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Garcia: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Ramirez: 18 sig / 1 TD
Nick Garcia
Matt Ramirez
42
Sig strikes landed
41
90
Sig strikes attempted
89
60
Total strikes landed
51
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
167s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nick Garcia
"Nitro"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Blue corner
Matt Ramirez
"The Machine"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"