Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rolando Perez
Mark Vorgeas
78%
22%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Perez: 74 sig / 0 TD ·
Vorgeas: 70 sig / 0 TD
Rolando Perez
Mark Vorgeas
45
Sig strikes landed
45
93
Sig strikes attempted
97
57
Total strikes landed
58
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rolando Perez
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Blue corner
Mark Vorgeas
0-0
Career record
Height
70"