Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Andy Murad
Bubba Pugh
93%
7%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Murad: 39 sig / 1 TD ·
Pugh: 43 sig / 4 TD
Andy Murad
Bubba Pugh
44
Sig strikes landed
40
101
Sig strikes attempted
96
68
Total strikes landed
45
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
178s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Andy Murad
"The Tooth Fairy"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Blue corner
Bubba Pugh
0-0
Career record
Height
70"