Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jonathan Santa Maria
Ron Henderson
75%
25%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Santa Maria: 54 sig / 0 TD ·
Henderson: 38 sig / 1 TD
Jonathan Santa Maria
Ron Henderson
38
Sig strikes landed
39
84
Sig strikes attempted
86
50
Total strikes landed
53
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
148s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jonathan Santa Maria
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Blue corner
Ron Henderson
0-0
Career record
Height
70"