Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
AJ Matthews
Kyle Bolt
73%
27%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Matthews: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Bolt: 12 sig / 0 TD
AJ Matthews
Kyle Bolt
38
Sig strikes landed
46
96
Sig strikes attempted
105
50
Total strikes landed
58
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
AJ Matthews
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Age
27
Blue corner
Kyle Bolt
0-0
Career record
Height
74"