Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joao Paulo Faria
Ian Butler
78%
22%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Faria: 80 sig / 1 TD ·
Butler: 25 sig / 0 TD
Joao Paulo Faria
Ian Butler
39
Sig strikes landed
38
95
Sig strikes attempted
92
51
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
156s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Joao Paulo Faria
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Blue corner
Ian Butler
0-0
Career record
Height
68"