Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Muhammed Lawal
Joe Vedepo
68%
32%
Why
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Lawal: 66 sig / 3 TD ·
Vedepo: 9 sig / 0 TD
Muhammed Lawal
Joe Vedepo
36
Sig strikes landed
34
75
Sig strikes attempted
75
52
Total strikes landed
50
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Muhammed Lawal
"King Mo"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
Blue corner
Joe Vedepo
"The Doctor"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32