Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mike Richman
Nam Phan
89%
11%
Why
29
Age
Δ 2y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Richman: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Phan: 5 sig / 0 TD
Mike Richman
Nam Phan
53
Sig strikes landed
46
120
Sig strikes attempted
102
72
Total strikes landed
63
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
157s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mike Richman
"The Marine"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
29
Blue corner
Nam Phan
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32