Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Joe Schilling
Melvin Manhoef
35%
65%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Schilling: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Manhoef: 20 sig / 0 TD
Joe Schilling
Melvin Manhoef
37
Sig strikes landed
39
96
Sig strikes attempted
101
50
Total strikes landed
64
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.60
99s
Control time
212s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Joe Schilling
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Blue corner
Melvin Manhoef
"No Mercy"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39