Prelims2
Lightweight
Jake Lindsey vs Joe Duffy
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jake Lindsey
Joe Duffy
36%
64%
Why
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
L2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lindsey: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Duffy: 15 sig / 0 TD
Jake Lindsey
Joe Duffy
35
Sig strikes landed
37
66
Sig strikes attempted
70
47
Total strikes landed
54
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
108s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jake Lindsey
"The Librarian"
12-8
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
Blue corner
Joe Duffy
"Irish"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27