Back to UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
Prelims1 Middleweight

Elias Theodorou vs Roger Narvaez

UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos ·American Airlines Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Elias Theodorou
Roger Narvaez
85% 15%
Why
27
Age
Δ 5y
32
17-3
Career record
Δ 10 pp
9-3
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Theodorou: 39 sig / 2 TD · Narvaez: 16 sig / 0 TD
Elias Theodorou
Roger Narvaez
42
Sig strikes landed
23
84
Sig strikes attempted
60
68
Total strikes landed
36
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
239s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Elias Theodorou

"The Spartan"
17-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
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W UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
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Blue corner
W1

Roger Narvaez

"Silverback"
9-3
Career record
Height
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
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