Prelims1
Lightweight
Daron Cruickshank vs Beneil Dariush
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Daron Cruickshank
Beneil Dariush
38%
62%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
18-10
Career record
Δ 8 pp
24-8-1
W1
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Cruickshank: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Dariush: 27 sig / 1 TD
Daron Cruickshank
Beneil Dariush
27
Sig strikes landed
33
77
Sig strikes attempted
73
37
Total strikes landed
48
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
78s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Daron Cruickshank
"Detroit Superstar"
18-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
Blue corner
W2
Beneil Dariush
24-8-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—