🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Strawweight
Carla Esparza vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Carla Esparza
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
70%
30%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
27
Age
Δ 0y
28
21-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
17-5
W1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Esparza: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Jedrzejczyk: 53 sig / 0 TD
Carla Esparza
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
58
Sig strikes landed
57
146
Sig strikes attempted
143
80
Total strikes landed
78
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.0
5.7
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
188s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
21-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
W2
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
17-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—