Main
Welterweight
Johny Hendricks vs Matt Brown
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Johny Hendricks
Matt Brown
67%
33%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 6"
75"
32
Age
Δ 3y
34
18-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
26-20
L1
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hendricks: 36 sig / 9 TD ·
Brown: 23 sig / 0 TD
Johny Hendricks
Matt Brown
60
Sig strikes landed
57
108
Sig strikes attempted
117
79
Total strikes landed
62
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
224s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
Blue corner
L1
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26-20
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—