Main
Heavyweight
Roy Nelson vs Alistair Overeem
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Roy Nelson
Alistair Overeem
11%
89%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 7"
80"
39
Age
Δ 4y
35
22-15
Career record
Δ 12 pp
48-19
L1
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nelson: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Overeem: 62 sig / 0 TD
Roy Nelson
Alistair Overeem
20
Sig strikes landed
39
54
Sig strikes attempted
64
36
Total strikes landed
49
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.50
135s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22-15
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
W1
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
48-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—