Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Chris Cariaso
Henry Cejudo
44%
56%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 0"
64"
34
Age
Δ 6y
28
17-9
Career record
Δ 9 pp
17-6
L1
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cariaso: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Cejudo: 50 sig / 6 TD
Chris Cariaso
Henry Cejudo
52
Sig strikes landed
62
125
Sig strikes attempted
141
63
Total strikes landed
70
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
111s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chris Cariaso
"Kamikaze"
17-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W1
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
17-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—