Prelims1
Welterweight
William Macario vs Matt Dwyer
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
·Ginasio Gigantinho
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
William Macario
Matt Dwyer
69%
31%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
24
Age
Δ 2y
25
9-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
9-5
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Macario: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Dwyer: 13 sig / 0 TD
William Macario
Matt Dwyer
41
Sig strikes landed
61
85
Sig strikes attempted
159
59
Total strikes landed
67
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.6
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
168s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
William Macario
"Patolino"
9-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
Blue corner
L1
Matt Dwyer
9-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—