Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Jessica Andrade vs Marion Reneau
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
·Ginasio Gigantinho
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jessica Andrade
Marion Reneau
89%
11%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 6"
68"
23
Age
Δ 14y
38
27-15
Career record
Δ 12 pp
10-8-1
W3
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Andrade: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Reneau: 6 sig / 0 TD
Jessica Andrade
Marion Reneau
52
Sig strikes landed
61
113
Sig strikes attempted
164
75
Total strikes landed
71
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.1
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
171s
Control time
22s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jessica Andrade
"Bate Estaca"
27-15
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
Blue corner
W1
Marion Reneau
"The Belizean Bruiser"
10-8-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—