Main
Bantamweight
Iuri Alcantara vs Frankie Saenz
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
·Ginasio Gigantinho
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Iuri Alcantara
Frankie Saenz
89%
11%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 5"
66"
35
Age
Δ 0y
34
36-10
Career record
Δ 12 pp
14-7
W3
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alcantara: 31 sig / 2 TD ·
Saenz: 44 sig / 3 TD
Iuri Alcantara
Frankie Saenz
36
Sig strikes landed
30
81
Sig strikes attempted
69
52
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
109s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Iuri Alcantara
"Marajo"
36-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
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L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
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W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W1
Frankie Saenz
14-7
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
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