Main
Lightweight
Rustam Khabilov vs Adriano Martins
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
·Ginasio Gigantinho
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Rustam Khabilov
Adriano Martins
65%
35%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
24-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
29-9
L1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Khabilov: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Martins: 12 sig / 3 TD
Rustam Khabilov
Adriano Martins
22
Sig strikes landed
19
50
Sig strikes attempted
46
41
Total strikes landed
29
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
176s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rustam Khabilov
"Tiger"
24-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
Blue corner
W1
Adriano Martins
29-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—