Main
Lightweight
Edson Barboza vs Michael Johnson
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
·Ginasio Gigantinho
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Edson Barboza
Michael Johnson
70%
30%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
25-14
Career record
Δ 8 pp
26-20
W2
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barboza: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 38 sig / 1 TD
Edson Barboza
Michael Johnson
49
Sig strikes landed
42
128
Sig strikes attempted
112
50
Total strikes landed
45
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
-7s
Control time
44s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
25-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
Blue corner
W3
Michael Johnson
"The Menace"
26-20
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—