Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cezar Ferreira
Sam Alvey
39%
61%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
14-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
34-18-1
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ferreira: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Alvey: 4 sig / 0 TD
Cezar Ferreira
Sam Alvey
31
Sig strikes landed
31
76
Sig strikes attempted
66
44
Total strikes landed
42
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
169s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cezar Ferreira
"Mutante"
14-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
34-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—