Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dan Henderson
Gegard Mousasi
7%
93%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
44
Age
Δ 15y
30
32-16
Career record
Δ 16 pp
42-7-2
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Henderson: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Mousasi: 4 sig / 0 TD
Dan Henderson
Gegard Mousasi
26
Sig strikes landed
39
55
Sig strikes attempted
82
40
Total strikes landed
49
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.60
90s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Dan Henderson
"Hendo"
32-16
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
44
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
Blue corner
L1
Gegard Mousasi
42-7-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—