Main
Light Heavyweight
Alexander Gustafsson vs Anthony Johnson
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson
·Tele2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Alexander Gustafsson
Anthony Johnson
49%
51%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
19-8
Career record
Δ 9 pp
23-6
W1
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gustafsson: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Johnson: 30 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Gustafsson
Anthony Johnson
32
Sig strikes landed
30
82
Sig strikes attempted
73
44
Total strikes landed
40
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
42s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
19-8
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
Blue corner
W2
Anthony Johnson
"Rumble"
23-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—