Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Phil Davis
Ryan Bader
52%
48%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
30
Age
Δ 1y
32
18-4
Career record
Δ 1 pp
24-5
W1
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Davis: 35 sig / 0 TD ·
Bader: 26 sig / 1 TD
Phil Davis
Ryan Bader
40
Sig strikes landed
37
107
Sig strikes attempted
90
59
Total strikes landed
51
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.4
5.2
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
151s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Phil Davis
"Mr. Wonderful"
18-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
Blue corner
W3
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
24-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—