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Prelims1 Featherweight

Chas Skelly vs Jim Alers

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch ·1stBank Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Chas Skelly
Jim Alers
64% 36%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
20-3
Career record
Δ 5 pp
14-3
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Skelly: 42 sig / 0 TD · Alers: 33 sig / 1 TD
Chas Skelly
Jim Alers
27
Sig strikes landed
27
66
Sig strikes attempted
79
48
Total strikes landed
51
1.6
Takedowns landed
2.2
5.1
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
196s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Chas Skelly

"The Scrapper"
20-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
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W UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
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L UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
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Blue corner
W1

Jim Alers

"The Beast"
14-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
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