Prelims1
Flyweight
Zach Makovsky vs Tim Elliott
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch
·1stBank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Zach Makovsky
Tim Elliott
63%
37%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
20-9
Career record
Δ 11 pp
22-15-1
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Makovsky: 21 sig / 6 TD ·
Elliott: 43 sig / 1 TD
Zach Makovsky
Tim Elliott
38
Sig strikes landed
42
94
Sig strikes attempted
107
58
Total strikes landed
69
2.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
7.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
231s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
79%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Zach Makovsky
"Fun Size"
20-9
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
Blue corner
L2
Tim Elliott
22-15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—