Main
Middleweight
Daniel Kelly vs Patrick Walsh
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch
·1stBank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Daniel Kelly
Patrick Walsh
65%
35%
Why
37
Age
Δ 11y
26
14-4
Career record
Δ 1 pp
11-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kelly: 61 sig / 0 TD ·
Walsh: 50 sig / 1 TD
Daniel Kelly
Patrick Walsh
20
Sig strikes landed
21
33
Sig strikes attempted
58
42
Total strikes landed
37
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
154s
Control time
204s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
42%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Daniel Kelly
14-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
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Blue corner
W1
Patrick Walsh
"The Beast of the East"
11-3
Career record
Height
71"
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—