Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ray Borg
Chris Kelades
75%
25%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 5"
68"
22
Age
Δ 12y
34
14-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
10-3
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Borg: 19 sig / 5 TD ·
Kelades: 4 sig / 0 TD
Ray Borg
Chris Kelades
23
Sig strikes landed
30
41
Sig strikes attempted
50
45
Total strikes landed
55
2.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
330s
Control time
193s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
39%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ray Borg
"The Tazmexican Devil"
14-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
W1
Chris Kelades
"The Greek Assassin"
10-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—