Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Cole Miller
83%
17%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
23
Age
Δ 8y
31
28-9
Career record
Δ 9 pp
22-11
W4
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Holloway: 57 sig / 1 TD ·
Miller: 31 sig / 0 TD
Max Holloway
Cole Miller
72
Sig strikes landed
62
162
Sig strikes attempted
153
81
Total strikes landed
66
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.4
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
45s
Control time
49s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
28-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
Blue corner
W2
Cole Miller
"Magrinho"
22-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—