Main
Welterweight
Benson Henderson vs Brandon Thatch
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch
·1stBank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Benson Henderson
Brandon Thatch
79%
21%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
31
Age
Δ 2y
30
24-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
12-5
L2
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 4
Henderson: 57 sig / 3 TD ·
Thatch: 44 sig / 2 TD
Benson Henderson
Brandon Thatch
44
Sig strikes landed
38
91
Sig strikes attempted
91
64
Total strikes landed
47
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
217s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
22%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
51%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Benson Henderson
"Smooth"
24-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Brandon Thatch
"Rukus"
12-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—