Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
James Krause
Valmir Lazaro
74%
26%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
28-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
15-6
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Krause: 87 sig / 0 TD ·
Lazaro: 87 sig / 0 TD
James Krause
Valmir Lazaro
75
Sig strikes landed
69
174
Sig strikes attempted
168
94
Total strikes landed
81
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
126s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
James Krause
"The"
28-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
L1
Valmir Lazaro
"Bidu"
15-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—