Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Ruan Potts
88%
12%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
30
Age
Δ 7y
37
29-14
Career record
Δ 6 pp
11-7
L1
Current streak
L2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lewis: 53 sig / 0 TD ·
Potts: 7 sig / 1 TD
Derrick Lewis
Ruan Potts
33
Sig strikes landed
6
54
Sig strikes attempted
14
50
Total strikes landed
19
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
160s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
29-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
L2
Ruan Potts
"Fangzz"
11-7
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—