Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Gleison Tibau
51%
49%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
27-11
Career record
Δ 0 pp
34-14
W4
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Ferguson: 11 sig / 1 TD ·
Tibau: 2 sig / 0 TD
Tony Ferguson
Gleison Tibau
39
Sig strikes landed
31
105
Sig strikes attempted
91
46
Total strikes landed
42
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.7
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
19s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
27-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
Blue corner
W3
Gleison Tibau
34-14
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—