Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Mark Munoz
Roan Carneiro
49%
51%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
37
Age
Δ 0y
37
L2
Current streak
—
11
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Munoz: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Carneiro: 1 sig / 0 TD
Mark Munoz
Roan Carneiro
27
Sig strikes landed
33
58
Sig strikes attempted
69
45
Total strikes landed
49
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
186s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Mark Munoz
"The Filipino Wrecking Machine"
14-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
Blue corner
Roan Carneiro
"Jucao"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37