Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Alan Jouban
Richard Walsh
58%
42%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
33
Age
Δ 7y
26
17-8
Career record
Δ 8 pp
9-6
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Jouban: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Walsh: 10 sig / 0 TD
Alan Jouban
Richard Walsh
51
Sig strikes landed
58
107
Sig strikes attempted
122
69
Total strikes landed
70
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
68s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alan Jouban
"Brahma"
17-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
Blue corner
L1
Richard Walsh
"Filthy Rich"
9-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—