Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Ellenberger
Josh Koscheck
85%
15%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
30
Age
Δ 7y
37
31-16
Career record
Δ 7 pp
17-12
L3
Current streak
L3
12
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Ellenberger: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Koscheck: 7 sig / 1 TD
Jake Ellenberger
Josh Koscheck
34
Sig strikes landed
19
71
Sig strikes attempted
55
48
Total strikes landed
36
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.3
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
89s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
Blue corner
L3
Josh Koscheck
17-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—