Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ed Herman
Derek Brunson
41%
59%
Why
77"
Reach
77"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
28-16
Career record
Δ 9 pp
24-9
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Herman: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Brunson: 11 sig / 0 TD
Ed Herman
Derek Brunson
23
Sig strikes landed
23
50
Sig strikes attempted
66
36
Total strikes landed
43
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.8
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
26s
Control time
220s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
28-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
Blue corner
W1
Derek Brunson
"The One"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—