Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ian McCall
John Lineker
14%
86%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
31
Age
Δ 6y
25
14-5-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
32-9
W2
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
McCall: 40 sig / 1 TD ·
Lineker: 38 sig / 0 TD
Ian McCall
John Lineker
57
Sig strikes landed
72
143
Sig strikes attempted
165
65
Total strikes landed
85
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.1
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.60
88s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ian McCall
"Uncle Creepy"
14-5-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
L
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
D
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
W1
John Lineker
"Hands of Stone"
32-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—