Prelims1
Women's Bantamweight
Miesha Tate vs Sara McMann
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Miesha Tate
Sara McMann
68%
32%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
21-10
Career record
Δ 2 pp
14-6
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Tate: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
McMann: 34 sig / 1 TD
Miesha Tate
Sara McMann
22
Sig strikes landed
25
44
Sig strikes attempted
57
63
Total strikes landed
63
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
205s
Control time
270s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Miesha Tate
"Cupcake"
21-10
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
Blue corner
W1
Sara McMann
14-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—