Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Natal
Tom Watson
69%
31%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
32
Age
Δ 0y
33
22-9-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-9
W1
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Natal: 67 sig / 8 TD ·
Watson: 29 sig / 0 TD
Rafael Natal
Tom Watson
55
Sig strikes landed
48
122
Sig strikes attempted
105
69
Total strikes landed
66
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
185s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rafael Natal
"Sapo"
22-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Ba…
—
W
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W1
Tom Watson
"Kong"
18-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
L
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—