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Joe Lauzon vs Al Iaquinta

UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz ·MGM Grand Garden Arena

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Joe Lauzon
Al Iaquinta
64% 36%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
29-16
Career record
Δ 1 pp
15-7-1
W2
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lauzon: 32 sig / 0 TD · Iaquinta: 59 sig / 1 TD
Joe Lauzon
Al Iaquinta
35
Sig strikes landed
41
98
Sig strikes attempted
101
48
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
105s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Joe Lauzon

29-16
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
W UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
L UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
L UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
W UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
Blue corner
W2

Al Iaquinta

"Raging"
15-7-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
L UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
W UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mun…