Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Thales Leites
Tim Boetsch
86%
14%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
29-9
Career record
Δ 13 pp
22-13
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Leites: 20 sig / 1 TD ·
Boetsch: 26 sig / 0 TD
Thales Leites
Tim Boetsch
30
Sig strikes landed
20
63
Sig strikes attempted
46
51
Total strikes landed
34
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
194s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Thales Leites
29-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
Blue corner
W1
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
22-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—