Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Tyron Woodley
Kelvin Gastelum
51%
49%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
33
Age
Δ 9y
23
20-7-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
22-11
W1
Current streak
W5
6
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Woodley: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Gastelum: 32 sig / 0 TD
Tyron Woodley
Kelvin Gastelum
28
Sig strikes landed
31
73
Sig strikes attempted
76
37
Total strikes landed
48
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
88s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tyron Woodley
"The Chosen One"
20-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
—
L
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
W5
Kelvin Gastelum
22-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—