Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jordan Mein
Thiago Alves
87%
13%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
25
Age
Δ 6y
31
32-12
Career record
Δ 11 pp
24-15
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Mein: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Alves: 23 sig / 0 TD
Jordan Mein
Thiago Alves
44
Sig strikes landed
37
111
Sig strikes attempted
92
49
Total strikes landed
54
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
63s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jordan Mein
"Young Gun"
32-12
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
24-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—