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Richardson Moreira vs Ildemar Alcantara

UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Richardson Moreira
Ildemar Alcantara
33% 67%
Why
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
7-5
Career record
Δ 5 pp
21-12
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Moreira: 15 sig / 0 TD · Alcantara: 21 sig / 0 TD
Richardson Moreira
Ildemar Alcantara
20
Sig strikes landed
30
41
Sig strikes attempted
59
32
Total strikes landed
58
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
77s
Control time
212s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Richardson Moreira

"Rick Monstro"
7-5
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
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Blue corner
L1

Ildemar Alcantara

"Marajo"
21-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
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W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
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L UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
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W UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
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W UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
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